Is Hollywood's Blockbuster Era Over?

    Since the early days of Hollywood as a film industry, big-budget phenomenon films with massive box office numbers have been a constant, from 1920s epic films such as "Ben-Hur" and "Intolerance" to 1970s disaster movies like "The Tower of Inferno" and "The Adventure of the Poseidon." However, it was in the 1980s when Hollywood fully embraced movies, which were developed and promoted under a vertically integrated system of exploitation. This system included not only theatrical moviegoers but also considerably lucrative revenue streams through home media, merchandising, and licensing sales. During the 1980s, many franchises emerged, basing their success on spectacular, action-driven narratives aimed at various audiences, from families to teenagers and adults. Advances in visual and digital effects, along with the expansion of international markets, were essential to the rise of what became known as the Blockbuster Era.

    The significant rise of these large-scale productions in the 1980s fueled the expansion of multiplexes in the 1990s. These new theater models were necessary to accommodate the increasing number of weekly releases while also sustaining ongoing box office hits. Multiplexes and mall-centered lifestyles became deeply interconnected in the United States, coinciding with the rise of major retail brands. At the same time, the industry experienced another wave of consumerism driven by the boom of VHS and cable television. Movie ticket sales peaked between the mid-1990s and the early 2000s but then began a slow, yet still manageable, decline. This trend persisted until 2010-2014, when ticket sales and DVD consumption started to plummet at an alarming rate. Yet, everything changed in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, disrupting the entertainment industry in ways that have never been seen before.

    Between 2018 and 2022, the media industry experienced the so-called Streaming Wars, a period of rapid and transformative change. The battle unfolded on multiple fronts—plummeting theatrical attendance, the near-extinction of DVD sales, and studios hemorrhaging hundreds of millions to launch their own streaming platforms. The one major exception was Sony, which opted out of this race, not necessarily by strategic foresight but due to internal economic and structural challenges—challenges that, ironically, saved the company from massive financial losses.

    Today, no one in the industry can pretend that we are in the same landscape we were a decade ago. Audience fragmentation is undeniable. The 2023 actors' and writers' strikes further shook an already fragile system, and even now, countless executives are struggling to reorganize production schedules. Meanwhile, independent distributors like Neon and A24 have carved out their own economic and industrial space in this new paradigm. But what about major studios and their blockbusters?

    Modern blockbusters have evolved beyond their traditional role. They are now colossal, high-stakes productions designed either to gross half a billion dollars or more—or to collapse entirely under the weight of their budgets. Moreover, erratic studio release schedules are wreaking havoc on multiplex chains, flooding them with content in brief bursts while leaving them with little to sustain operations during quieter periods.

    Blockbusters are still here, and they aren't disappearing, but their role and function have fundamentally changed from the expectations set between the 1990s and the 2010s. It is time to reconsider where we stand as an industry.

    When Barbenheimer happened, it felt like a singular event. Yet, in reality, simultaneous blockbuster releases have been common throughout Hollywood history. The difference is that, in today's climate, such an occurrence was perceived as a rare and spectacular moment. The industry tried replicating this success with Wicked and Gladiator II, but the impact was less mediatic. The truth is that today's blockbusters are no longer just movies; they have become multi-platform events that exist simultaneously as social media phenomena, meme fodder, and, eventually, streaming content rather than solely theatrical experiences.

    Movie theaters are struggling again, not only as they did in early 2023 but also in ways reminiscent of the pandemic years (2020-2022). The economics of the industry are increasingly precarious, with long stretches of underperformance punctuated by brief box office surges. This text does not advocate for panic, but it does call for serious reflection on the sustainability of the multiplex model—a structure that remains essential for blockbuster events yet increasingly unviable throughout the rest of the year.

    Some argue that we are now in the Algorithm Era, a concept that points out how major movies are greenlighted using industrial parameters based solely on consumption and much less on instinct and cinematic know-how. However, this notion does little to explain the challenges facing theatrical exhibition, and some of us think that we are in the Movie Event Era, a notion that signals macro-event that concentrates their attraction in an extremely short period. Either reality is provoking massive challenges for large multiplex theater chains, especially in the United States – some international territories are able to infuse local productions between events.

    What we can observe is that Hollywood is reacting by investing more in mid-budget films than in the past decade. Additionally, the horror genre and niche productions are thriving, consistently delivering solid box office returns. These are the films that genuinely engage audiences with narratives that respond to contemporary social anxieties—much like the films of the 1960s and 1970s, which grappled with concerns about economic instability and technological change.

    Perhaps the most accurate way to define this moment is as a Reconfiguration Era, a transitional period in which the industry is dealing with an identity crisis that, hopefully, will resolve itself. The doubt stays on how the theatrical landscape will be by the time Hollywood is back to its feet.