Will the Oscars recognize a $100 million box office commercial success once again?

Since "Argo" in 2012, the Oscars have avoided acknowledging commercial hits capable of generating over $100 million at the U.S. box office. For over a decade, the awards have favored productions often belonging to circuits distant from major commercial successes like "Forrest Gump," "The Lord of the Rings," or "Titanic," to name a few.

In fact, since 2005, with "Crash," the Oscars have only fallen on a film with over $100 million at the U.S. box office on four occasions. While between 1990 and 2004, this happened twelve times out of fourteen.

The expansion from five to ten nominees for Best Picture was intended for a more commercial cinema. However, Hollywood opened the door to a more varied, diverse, and international cinema instead. This new reality is not bad at all, as it favors many independent producers and distributors worldwide.

Indeed, in the last decade, we have seen an independent studio like A24 win two Oscars for Best Picture with "Moonlight" and "Everything Everywhere All At Once," Neon triumph with a Korean film, "Parasite," and Fox Searchlight with "Nomadland." And more in the past, Summit achieved it with "The Hurt Locker" or Open Road with "Spotlight," both films that grossed less than $50 million at the U.S. box office. And finally, the first Oscar for a streamer, "Coda," which in 2021 barely made it to theaters.

But 2024 has a somewhat different protagonist: #Barbenheimer.

Hollywood has the opportunity to reward a genuinely homegrown product not only for its costs and style but, more importantly, for its commercial impact. And between us, they are unlikely to let this opportunity pass. Whether it's "Barbie" or "Oppenheimer," it's hard to imagine the Oscar leaning in another direction now.

These two films are not just cultural and cinematic triumphs; they are also long-awaited commercial successes for Hollywood. A phenomenon outside the realms of superheroes. A type of cinema that merges the commercial and economic spaces that historically belonged to it before the streaming era.

Barbenheimer represents the essence of Hollywood, at least the Hollywood we iconically identify within the Oscars. Capable of creating those cinematic and commercial spaces that leave a historic mark.

When "Moonlight" won in 2016, it was impactful, surpassing a product like "La La Land." The victory of Barry Jenkins' wonderful film was a reminder that Hollywood is an industry that mutates and changes, one that must adapt and reassess.

Is this the moment to reward that "old" Hollywood once again? Either"Barbie" or "Oppenheimer" will mean that. And if not, let it go to #TheHoldovers and everyone will be happy 

#Oscars #Oscars2024 #AcademyAwards #Barbie #Oppenheimer